Peak Season Came Early. Then It Refused to End.

After a tariff-driven early peak, the latest data show U.S. import volumes staying elevated into September, changing the logistics planning equation all over again.

The story of 2026 keeps changing. Early in the year, NRF's Global Port Tracker expected a weaker first half, with H1 imports initially forecast at about 12.27 million TEUs, roughly 2% below 2025. By midsummer the narrative had flipped. Retailers and importers were pulling cargo forward ahead of tariff changes and other supply-chain uncertainty, and NRF was calling 2026 an early peak season, with May looking like the busiest month of the year. Its August outlook put September at just 2.16 million TEUs and expected volumes to fade through the rest of the year.

Then September rewrote the story a third time.

What the numbers now say

NRF and Hackett Associates now forecast 2.31 million TEUs for September, up 9.6% year over year, potentially the busiest month of 2026. July's final volume came in at 2.3 million TEUs, down 3.9% from a year earlier but up 3.2% from June, and August was projected at 2.29 million TEUs. For the full year, NRF now expects about 25.7 million TEUs, roughly 1% above 2025, with the first half finishing at 12.7 million TEUs, up 1.1% year over year. The cargo did not disappear, and it did not simply move earlier. It came early and then kept coming.

Los Angeles tells the same story from the dock. The port processed 955,907 TEUs in August, capping its busiest three-month stretch on record, more than 2.9 million TEUs across June, July, and August. Executive Director Gene Seroka credited resilient consumer demand, early holiday shipments, and a broad mix of cargo, and said September was shaping up to be another strong month. The important point is not simply that volumes were high. It is that the timing of the cargo became much harder to predict.

Why the peak stretched

NRF pointed to several forces behind the later-than-expected strength: vessel delays caused by bad weather in China, some ships rerouting away from the Panama Canal amid concerns over potential drought, resilient consumer demand despite tariffs and inflation, and continued retailer replenishment to meet it. Hackett Associates added that while cargo is moving relatively smoothly, there are reports of vessel delays and longer supply-chain transit times. Together, those factors pushed cargo that would have landed earlier into the traditional fall window, on top of a peak that had already arrived ahead of schedule.

Why an extended peak is the hard case

A predictable peak can be staffed, and a quiet season can be budgeted. But a peak that arrives early, gets revised upward mid-season, and then extends into the traditional fall period spreads uncertainty across the entire network, from warehouse space and drayage to trucking, chassis, rail, labor, and inventory positioning.

The cost shows up on both ends. Teams that staffed down for a quiet fall, trusting the early-peak narrative, are now absorbing a September that turned out to be the busiest month of the year. Teams that front-loaded hard in spring are carrying inventory and paying for storage while volume keeps arriving. Plan too early and you eat carrying and warehousing costs. Plan too late and you pay premium freight and fight for constrained capacity.

Gateway strategy stopped being static too. Seroka noted that trans-Pacific rates have at times favored East Coast routings, while LA's speed onto rail can keep the West Coast attractive for importers serving inland markets. The right coast this quarter may not be the right coast next quarter.

What supply-chain leaders should do Forecast timing, not just volume. An annual TEU number does not tell you when your capacity will actually be needed, and in 2026 the monthly distribution is where the pain lives. Treat trade policy as a logistics variable. A tariff announcement changes when cargo moves, not only what it costs. Read the policy calendar as a demand signal. Build flexibility into capacity agreements. When demand timing becomes less predictable, the option to flex volume up and down carries real economic value. Quantify the cost of front-loading. Earlier imports can reduce tariff and stockout exposure, but they also add inventory, warehousing, financing, and working-capital costs. Put a number on it. Preserve gateway optionality. Ocean rates, rail performance, transit times, and inland demand can all shift the economics between West Coast and East Coast gateways.

The bigger lesson is not about more imports or fewer. It is about when those imports move. The annual number can stay relatively stable while the monthly distribution swings hard. For logistics leaders, the old question, "how much cargo will we move?", is no longer enough. The better question is, "when will that cargo actually arrive?"

This article is informational and reflects data available as of September 19, 2026. Volumes and forecasts remain subject to revision.

SOURCES

Port of Los Angeles (primaria) — Comunicado de agosto 2026: 955,907 TEUs, mejor trimestre histórico, expectativa de Seroka para septiembre: https://www.portoflosangeles.org/references/2026-news-releases/news_090926_aug_cargo NRF / Global Port Tracker vía Textile World (datos del 9 sep. 2026: julio 2.3M/−3.9%, sept. 2.31M/+9.6%, año 25.7M/+1%, H1 12.7M): https://www.textileworld.com/textile-world/2026/09/nrf-import-cargos-peak-season-not-over-yet/ NRF vía The SCXchange (lectura de agosto: pico adelantado, mayo como máximo, sept. en 2.16M, H1 inicial ~12.27M/−2%): https://www.thescxchange.com/move/nrf-early-peak-shipping-season-to-subside-in-september gCaptain (reporte NRF de septiembre; cita de Gold; revisión desde 2.16M; causas): https://gcaptain.com/u-s-container-imports-defy-expectations-as-peak-season-stretches-into-september/ Sourcing Journal (WWD) ("NRF walks back slowdown call"; cifras julio/agosto; Seroka septiembre): https://wwd.com/sourcing-journal/logistics/september-peak-shipping-season-import-volumes-nrf-global-port-tracker-1239207519/